This PhD project focuses on improving the modelling of flood risks due to failure if flood defenses in delta regions and floods because of extreme precipitation for the financial sector, including the effects of climate change and possible interventions. For the failure of flood defenses, the goal is to incorporate and quantify 1) interdependencies because of interaction between flood defenses in a delta region, 2) emergency measures and 3) previously unaccounted-for strength into the modelling of flood risk in flood risk models. For extreme precipitation, the research will focus on the uncertainty of the size of an extreme rainfall event (such as Limburg 2021 or summer storms); this research focuses on constructing a probability distribution for the size of a possible rainfall event. The project consists of:

• Improving flood risk modelling (the combination of the probability of failure of a flood defense, the consequences and the damage) in delta regions by explicitly incorporating dependencies between dike sections and the effect of emergency measures in the risk modelling;
• Improving flood risk modelling for precipitation in delta regions by incorporating the spatial extent of an event based on radar imagery;
• Developing adaptation pathways for insurers and other financial institutions to reduce risk for the financial sector as the overall societal risk and costs;
• Applying the above research questions and testing the developed models in case studies in the Netherlands, in collaboration with the project partners.

Main duties and responsibilities:

• Developing and implementing the BREACH+ method, including system behaviour, the effectiveness of emergency measures and residual strength in sets of flood events;
• Constructing a probabilistic rainfall event size distribution for the Netherlands based on radar imagery and integrating this into a precipitation risk model for financial applications;
• Quantifying the effect of climate change (as KNMI’23 and future updates based in IPCC) and adaptation pathways on the expected annual damage, insurance premium and total costs;
• Applying the models in case studies in the Netherlands in collaboration with Nationale-Nederlanden and other FIRM partners;
• Presenting research findings at international conferences and publishing in leading peer‑reviewed journals;
• Completing a PhD thesis within four years;
• Contributing to teaching activities (approximately 20% of your time), including tutorials and supervision of theses.

This is an interdisciplinary project that combines hydraulic engineering, probabilistic risk analysis, actuarial science and data science. We realize that candidates will usually have expertise in one of these fields and ask for a genuine interest in the others.

• A Master’s degree (or completion before September 2026) in Civil Engineering, Hydrology, Actuarial Science, Econometrics, Applied Mathematics or a related field;
• Affinity with quantitative risk analysis and probabilistic modelling;
• Experience with programming (Python, R or similar) and working with large datasets;
• Ability to communicate complex technical findings to non‑specialists in the financial sector and in government;
• A collaborative mindset — FIRM is a team effort involving researchers, insurers, engineers and policymakers;
• Fluency in English is essential. Proficiency in Dutch is an asset;
• Intellectual curiosity, attention to detail and the drive to successfully complete a four‑year research project.

Applications that do not satisfy all listed requirements will not be taken into consideration

Supervisors: Prof. dr. Bas Kolen (UvA, HKV) · Prof. dr. ir. Michel Vellekoop (UvA)

We offer:

• A temporary employment contract for 38 hours per week for a duration of 4 years (initial contract of 18 months, extended upon positive evaluation). The position should lead to a PhD thesis;
• A gross monthly salary ranging from € 3,204 (year 1) to € 4,051 (year 4), scale P, excluding 8% holiday allowance and 8.3% year‑end bonus. The UFO profile “PhD Candidate” applies. The 30% ruling may apply to non‑Dutch candidates;
• An ambitious, international and collegial research environment within the Actuarial Science and Mathematical Finance research group at the Amsterdam School of Economics, in the heart of Amsterdam;
• A position in a large national research consortium, with direct access to unique insurance claims data and hydraulic model sets;
• Collaboration with leading financial institutions and water management organizations, with regular opportunities to present findings to practitioners;
• Access to the broad range of training, career and development opportunities at the UvA, including the support programme “Mastering my PhD” (for doctoral candidates).

The collective labour agreement of Dutch universities applies.

The UvA has an extensive package of fringe benefits, including:

• 29 days' holiday with full employment & extra holidays between Christmas and the New Year;
• Excellent work (from home) facilities;
• reimbursement of commuting expenses;
• pension accrual with ABP;
• In addition, the UvA offers excellent study and development opportunities and encourages employees to continue their professional development;
• You may participate in the open UvA lectures with which you can earn up to 30 credits per year.