This PhD project focuses on the interaction between long‑term strategies for flood risk management, the behaviour of the financial sector and the macroeconomic development of the Netherlands. The project develops a methodology to make this interaction explicit. The research consists of:

• Further developing a macroeconomic model that incorporates the response of insurers and other financial institutions to climate change and possible long‑term adaptation strategies to reduce floodrisk (using the flood risk models of Pillar 1), including GDP effects and distributional effects between areas inside and outside transition zones;
• Identifying tipping points at which climate and transition risks because of climate  adaptation influences investment choices;
• Developing and analyzing adaptation pathways: combinations of prevention, spatial planning and financial instruments that can postpone or avoid tipping points, assessed against the long‑term scenarios from the Sea Level Rise Knowledge Programme (Kennisprogramma Zeespiegelstijging, KP ZSS) and possible transition pathways based on the IPCC;
• Applying the methodology to case studies in the Netherlands in collaboration with project partners, and exploring international applications.

Main duties and responsibilities:

• Further developing a macroeconomic model that, in addition to protection, links other long‑term strategies to the behaviour of the financial sector and the implications for economic growth, including distributional effects between regions with different policies;
• Identifying tipping points at which climate and transition risks cause the financial sector to shift from a facilitating to a constraining role in spatial development;
• Developing adaptation pathways and assessing their effectiveness in terms of costs, benefits and distributional effects;
• Applying the model in workshops with insurers (led by Nationale‑Nederlanden) and policymakers (Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, Min. LnW; NLAAA);
• Presenting at international conferences and publishing in leading peer‑reviewed journals;
• Completing a PhD thesis within four years;
• Contributing to teaching activities (approximately 20% of your time), including tutorials and supervision of theses.

This is an interdisciplinary project at the intersection of environmental economics, macroeconomics, actuarial science and water management. We realize that candidates will usually have expertise in one of these fields and ask for a genuine interest in the others.

• A Master’s degree (or completion before September 2026) in Economics, Econometrics, Actuarial Science, Applied Mathematics, Environmental Sciences or a related field;
• Strong quantitative background: familiarity with dynamic optimization, cost‑benefit analysis or macroeconomic modelling is an advantage;
• Experience with programming (Python, R, MATLAB or similar);
• Ability to collaborate constructively with stakeholders from the financial sector and government;
• Interest in the Dutch spatial planning context and water management is an asset;
• Fluency in English is essential. Proficiency in Dutch is an asset;
• Intellectual curiosity, attention to detail and the drive to successfully complete a four‑year research project.

Applications that do not satisfy all listed requirements will not be taken into consideration.

Supervisors: Prof. dr. Bas Kolen (UvA, HKV) · Prof. dr. Ton van den Bremer (UvA, TU Delft) · Dr. Kees van Ginkel (Deltares, VU).

We offer:

• A temporary employment contract for 38 hours per week for a duration of 4 years (initial contract of 18 months, extended upon positive evaluation). The position should lead to a PhD thesis;
• A gross monthly salary ranging from € 3,204 (year 1) to € 4,051 (year 4), scale P, excluding 8% holiday allowance and 8.3% year‑end bonus. The UFO profile “PhD Candidate” applies. The 30% ruling may apply to non‑Dutch candidates;
• An ambitious, international and collegial research environment within the Actuarial Science and Mathematical Finance research group at the Amsterdam School of Economics, in the heart of Amsterdam;
• A position in a large national research consortium, with direct access to unique insurance loss data and hydraulic model sets;
• Collaboration with leading financial institutions and water management organizations, with regular opportunities to present findings to practitioners;
• Access to the broad range of training, career and development opportunities at the UvA, including the support programme “Mastering my PhD” (for doctoral candidates).

The collective labour agreement of Dutch universities applies.

The UvA has an extensive package of fringe benefits, including:

• 29 days' holiday with full employment & extra holidays between Christmas and the New Year;
• Excellent work (from home) facilities;
• reimbursement of commuting expenses;
• pension accrual with ABP;
• In addition, the UvA offers excellent study and development opportunities and encourages employees to continue their professional development;
• You may participate in the open UvA lectures with which you can earn up to 30 credits per year.