Based on claims data from Limburg, the standard Dutch Damage and Casualty Module (Schade‑ en Slachtoffermodule, SSM) appears to underestimate structural damage to residential buildings at water depths of a few decimeters up to one meter. The 2021 events also showed that early warning can substantially reduce damage at relatively low water depths. There is considerable uncertainty around these damage functions and around the effects of such measures. This postdoc project addresses these gaps. The research consists of:

• Develop a new dataset of observed damages and physical conditions based on insurance claims, and deriving improved, statistically robust damage functions for residential buildings under extreme precipitation for damage models;
• Modelling and quantifying the potential for flood risk reduction through building‑back‑better measures at the object level (such as flood‑resistant materials and improved drainage);
• Designing and evaluating experiments to measure the effectiveness of targeted warning messages to policyholders, and developing a quantitative framework for damage reduction compared to generic government warnings;
• Contribute to knowledge transfer to the sector.

Main duties and responsibilities:

This is a postdoctoral position. You will work independently on an ambitious research agenda and collaborate closely with the FIRM PhD candidates, Nationale‑Nederlanden and other partners.

• Designing and implementing a data collection protocol for flood damage observations in collaboration with Nationale‑Nederlanden and the Dutch Association of Insurers;
• Deriving improved damage functions for residential buildings under extreme precipitation, with attention to explanatory variables beyond water depth;
• Quantifying the risk‑reduction potential and cost‑effectiveness of building‑back‑better measures at the object level;
• Designing, conducting and evaluating early‑warning experiments;
• Presenting at international conferences and publishing in leading peer‑reviewed journals;
• Contributing to knowledge dissemination activities with sector partners;
• Contributing to teaching activities (approximately 20% of your time), including tutorials and supervision of Master’s theses.

This is an interdisciplinary project that combines empirical damage modelling, statistical analysis, experimental research and actuarial science. We realize that candidates will usually have expertise in one of these fields and ask for a genuine interest in the others.

• A PhD (completed or to be completed before September 2026) in Civil Engineering, Hydrology, Actuarial Science, Econometrics, Applied Statistics or a related field;
• Experience with statistical modelling and regression analysis applied to damage or loss data;
• Experience with programming (Python or R) and working with large datasets;
• Ability to design and evaluate field experiments or quasi‑experimental studies is an asset;
• Strong written and oral communication skills; ability to collaborate with stakeholders from the insurance sector;
• Fluency in English is essential. Proficiency in Dutch is an asset;
• Independence and drive to manage a focused two‑year research project.

Applications that do not satisfy all listed requirements will not be taken into consideration.

Supervisors: Prof. dr. Bas Kolen (UvA, HKV) · Dr. Inez Zwetsloot (UvA)

Pillar 4 is a postdoctoral position, not a PhD position. We offer:

• A temporary employment contract for 38 hours per week for a duration of 2 years (with a probationary period of 2 months), preferably starting on 1 September 2026. The UFO profile “Researcher 4” applies;
• A gross monthly salary between € 3,706 and € 5,760 (scale 10), depending on education and experience, excluding 8% holiday allowance and 8.3% year‑end bonus. The 30% ruling may apply to non‑Dutch candidates;
• An ambitious, international and collegial research environment within the Actuarial Science and Mathematical Finance research group at the Amsterdam School of Economics, in the heart of Amsterdam;
• A position in a large national research consortium, with direct access to unique insurance claims data and hydraulic model sets;
• Collaboration with leading financial institutions and water management organizations, with regular opportunities to present findings to practitioners;

The collective labour agreement of Dutch universities applies.

The UvA has an extensive package of fringe benefits, including:

• 29 days' holiday with full employment & extra holidays between Christmas and the New Year;
• Excellent work (from home) facilities;
• reimbursement of commuting expenses;
• pension accrual with ABP;
• In addition, the UvA offers excellent study and development opportunities and encourages employees to continue their professional development;
• You may participate in the open UvA lectures with which you can earn up to 30 credits per year.